A Thaw Across the Florida Straits?

As President Obama relaxes travel restrictions with Cuba, some ask if embargoes will be lifted.

by Michael Burgevin

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NEW YORK, Apr. 26 -- In a revolutionary move to normalize relations with Cuba, President Obama announced this month that he would overturn a law that bans American citizens with family in Cuba from frequently visiting the island.

The ban, part of a larger U.S. economic and travel embargo against Cuba, was implemented by George W. Bush in 2004. U.S. citizens without family members in Cuba are still banned from visiting the country.

The President’s move demonstrated his willingness to begin advancing relations with the Cuban government. The decision comes after administrative change in both Cuba and the U.S.

Last year, Fidel Castro announced that he would officially hand over power to his younger brother, Raúl. Fidel still remains in control of the Communist Party, a position that some argue is more powerful than the Presidency itself.

The embargos against Cuba were first implemented by President John F. Kennedy. At the time, the White House feared that the presence of a communist regime so close to the U.S. border could be detrimental during the Cold War, and the recently ended Cuban Missile Crisis had added further to fears of Soviet client state in America's backyard.

Kennedy signed the embargo into law in 1962, believing that the Castro regime could not survive without its economic ties to the United States. After almost fifty years and eleven American presidents, the regime still shows no sign of collapsing.

Many analysts believed Fidel’s exit from power would lead to the breakdown of communist rule in Cuba. However, the younger Castro brother has not brought any signs of democracy to the island. Since his appointment as president, Raúl fired both foreign minister Felipe Pérez Roque and Carlos Lage, the de facto economic czar. Many foreign governments believed that these men were the only democratic voices in the central administration.

President Obama’s move is significant as a demonstration of his willingness to engage with Cuba. However, the Cuban people should not expect any noticeable change from the lift of the travel ban, says foreign policy analyst Luís René Fernández of the University of Havana.
 
Speaking to the New York Times, he said "financially, the effect those steps would have for Cuba is tiny. Only opening up travel to all American and lifting the blockade with have a measurable impact.”

Both Raúl and Obama have voiced  their support for improving the relationship between the two countries. Obama announced that “I am prepared to have my administration engage with the Cuban government on a wide range of issues.” Raúl also stated his desire to create a “dialogue” with the U.S. government, emphasizing that no topic is off the table. Even Fidel demonstrated a desire to advance relations between the two countries.

Fareed Zakaria, the foreign affairs analyst and editor of Newsweek International, believes the United States must lift the embargo in order to promote change in Cuba.

“We’ve been trying to force regime change in Cuba for over 45 years,” explains Zakaria in a recent commentary. “Instead Fidel Castro is now the longest-lived head of government in the world. Every tightening of the Cuban embargo has resulted in further repression and isolation.”

The United States stands to benefit from lifting the embargo. Most notably, U.S. influence in Cuban affairs would expand significantly. Political analyst and columnist Nicholas Kristof described the pressure brought by American tourism.

“Suppose we invade Cuba not with gunmen but with tourists," he writes. "Unleash hoards of Americans complaining bitterly about the lack of wifi connections, or asking pointedly why the cars are so old and the buildings so dilapidated, and the Castros are in trouble.”

The White House has not shown signs that it plans to remove the embargo. The head of the President's National Economic Council, Lawrence Summers, told NBC News that “Cuba has known what it needs to do for a very long time, and it is up to them on terms of their policies, their democratization, all the steps they can take.”

Vice President Joe Biden offered a more blunt statement. When asked whether the United States would repeal the sanctions, Biden simply replied “No.”

Cuba’s authoritarian government and infamous human rights record presents a legal challenge for the United States. There are currently over 200 political prisoners in Cuban jails. Amnesty International reported last year that the Castro administration has placed severe limitations on free expression, association and movement. Canadian diplomat and democratic specialist Jeremy Kinsmen explained that “Obama cannot go far on lifting an embargo rooted in U.S. law without progress on human rights.”

The powerful Cuban-American lobbies have also historically opposed normalizing relations with Cuba. Most Cuban-American citizens are political exiles, who left the island after Fidel took power. Their lobby, and their influence in the swing state of Florida, grants them a significant amount of political sway.

The passing of time has thawed some of their hatred for the Castro administration. According to a survey completed by the Brookings Institute this month, 72 percent of registered voters in Cuban American communities believe that the embargo has failed, and 56 percent support reestablishing diplomatic relations with the island. Many of these citizens were born in the United States. They have no desire to return to the island, as the parents and grandparents once did.

Dr. Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, still hopes for change in Cuban-American relations. “A new U.S. policy would not only increase U.S. influence in Cuba, but it probably would also be the single most powerful way in which Obama can improve the U.S.’s standing throughout the Western Hemisphere.” If we can maintain connections with countries such as Russia, China, and Syria, we should be able to normalize relations with Cuba.

One thing is certain: The embargo has failed. As Haass argues, the United States must reanalyze its relations with Cuba in order to affect the country, and the Castro brothers’ rule, in any significant way.